After game 1 of the 2011 ALDS was suspended due to rain I tweeted "Assuming Verlander doesn't pitch til game 3 or 4 the Tigers may have just lost this series." I said this thinking that both Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia would be able to pull out wins, Nova did, Garcia did not. Verlander did end up pitching Game 3 and despite giving up the lead late pulled the win out due to a home run by Delmon Young.
My first reaction to the loss was, to worry about losing the series. Being down 2-1 in a five game series usually does warrant that kind of reaction, however on more careful consideration I began to become more optimistic about the outlook of the Yankees in this series. The reason being simple: Verlander pitched game 3. This means that he will either, not pitch the rest of the series OR he will have to start on short rest in game 5, in Yankee stadium going against Ivan Nova on full rest.
When I first saw the suspension of game 1 I thought that it would mean a 2-0 lead for the Yankees, and potentially a sweep. However I now see that it means a lucky five game win for the Yanks. I will be the first to admit that this particular would be 100% luck, if New York had to face Verlander twice in one series they would have very little chance to win the other three games. I will also be the first to admit that I vastly underestimated the Tigers pitchers, especially Max Scherzer who pitched a beautiful Game 2. Now it comes down to Rick Porcello vs AJ Burnett, a matchup that worries me because of Burnett's affinity to allow big innings. However the Yankee bats have been quiet for the last two games and I think Porcello is going to feel the full brunt of that frustration tonight. If New York is going to pick a game to explode offensively, the night AJ Burnett pitches is the night to do it.
Assuming there is still a series to talk about after tonight's game the most likely pitching match-up is Ivan Nova and Doug Fister. Verlander could go on short rest, but that isn't really Jim Leland's style, he trusts his guys to do their job and I believe he will go with Fister on normal rest. If Fister does go the Yankees will have a sizable advantage, not because Fister is bad, but because Ivan Nova has been almost unbeatable in the second half of the season and pitching at home he won't have to deal with any outside distractions that could faze rookie pitchers in such a big game. Actually a quick look at the stats and you can make an argument that Nova has been the Yankees best pitcher this season, in 5 fewer starts Nova only had 16 wins to CC Sabathia's 19, and the Yankees have won 7 of his last 10 games (including Game 1). That being said there is no doubt that the Yankees want a game 5 with Ivan on the mound, and he will be, thanks to the rain.
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