NBA Draft: full of bench players

Anyone who watched the NBA Draft on ESPN last night can tell you a couple of things, they didn't know who any of the record four foreign lottery picks were and that they don't care. That's because only the first two picks in this years NBA draft have a real chance at becoming stars, and only one has an opportunity to become a superstar.


That one player is Derrick Williams, the second overall pick by the Minnesota Timberwolves. The 6'8" forward out of the University of Arizona has by far the best shot of becoming a household name, and he has a chance to make Minnesota an actual threat in the suddenly wide open Western Conference. Williams averaged 19.5 points per game in his sophomore season at Arizona and added on 8.3 rebounds just for good measure, all of this at the small forward position. He led the NCAA in "true shooting percentage," a stat that includes two and three point shots as well as free throws to give a better understanding of the players shooting ability. On top of being a shooter Williams was a good, not great, but good defensive player and most importantly was a leader. During the NCAA tournament in March Williams led the Wildcats to three wins including one over the Duke Blue Devils and number one overall pick, Kyrie Irving.

Derrick Williams poses after being drafted second overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves

Besides Williams the pickings were rather slim. Yes Irving has the potential to become a good point guard, ESPN's Bill Simmons described him as somewhere between, "an extremely poor man's Chris Paul and a rich man's Mike Conley." The problems that I have with this pick are simple: 1. Cleveland has $20 million wrapped up in point guards for next season, especially an aging and underperforming Baron Davis, so when is Irving going to play? If Cleveland wanted a back-up point guard they easily could have gotten any number of decent point guards with their next pick, the number four pick. 2. They need a scorer and they need help rebounding, Derrick Williams is not only a better prospect than Irving but he better fills a need of theirs. 3. Irving was a great high school player, but he was hurt in college and didn't play very much, so there is no way to no if he can live up to a number one pick caliber. Yes what he did in high school was impressive, but many players have a great high school careers and then stumbled after not playing enough, or any college ball (Telfair, Sebastian, Smith J.R.). Maybe Kyrie will prove us all wrong and turn out to be the next King of Cleveland, but for now this pick doesn't make sense. 


As for the rest of the draft there were really only question marks. Will the 14 international players (four in the first seven picks) pan out? Many of them are young, at least three of the lottery picks were under 20 years old, and their talent is raw. For the most part these players will stay where they are until their contract ends and the teams that drafted them will be left hoping that they work out well. 


However the player that everyone wants to know about is known by one name: Jimmer. Will Jimmer Fredette be the offensive juggernaut that he was at BYU or will he be another player that was great in college and O.K. in the NBA? There's no doubt that he can shoot and has "in the gym" range, his range got its own name for god's sake! He has shown an un- real ability to change his shot when he goes to the rim and he has a quick first step, these are all things that we know. The unknowns are equally as important however: can Jimmer play without the ball? Can Jimmer become a good and willing passer? Will he be able to work with a player like Tyreke Evans, another guard who needs the ball. But most importantly will Jimmer be able to play defense in the NBA? He is not as fast as most of the guards he will be going up against and he is also not as tall as most of them. At 6' 2" he is on the smaller side of NBA point guards. Jimmer will have to answer these questions before he can enter the realm of star in the NBA. My gut tells me that Fredette WILL be able to come through and make his critics bite their tongues, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't pan out.  


But that is the glory of the Draft, picks like Manu Ginobli (57th overall pick in 1999) can turn into go to guys and number two picks like Dark Milicic can be complete busts. We will have to wait and see what happens over the next few years but for now it looks like the 2011 draft: the year of 50 bench players.